Finished today. This job went surprisingly smoothly. It is possible that the bearing was replaced previously because there was less fighting than I expected. I have no way to confirm. The evidence I have is less thread lock on the bolts than I expected and the axle popped free of the bearing splines pretty easily.
Here is roughly how it went.
Jacked up. Removed wheel, caliper w/ bracket, brake rotor and parking brake shoe.
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The next thing to do is one of the things I thought I would struggle with: the 3 mounting bolts that thread from behind the spindle into the bearing/hub assembly. I think one thing that helped was pushing the axle inboard to move the big CV joint away from where I need to get a socket. Before I started I also indexed the axle so the CV boot clamp crimp wasn't aligned with a bolt. The axle nut was a 35mm and my now-old Harbor Freight electric impact broke it free almost instantly. Freeing the axle from the hub spines took a couple whacks with a mini-sledge and a block of wood. So easy.
One bolt had pretty clear access, just small turns at a time with the ratchet. Patience but nothing more required for that one.
Another one required the upper control arm ball joint to be disconnected from the spindle in order to back the bolt out. I thought this might be difficult. I loosened the nut toward the end of the threads. Everything is aluminum here so I didn't really want to pound on it. I got a pry bar and pried between the spindle and the upper control arm where the ball joint is. It just popped free. Easy. I put a jack under the lower control arm and that was that.
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The bottom one is the one everyone complained about. However, all I did was use a few 3/8" extensions and no problem at all. Online people were talking about U-joints and all this nonsense. Maybe the trick is using the 3/8" extension which is narrower since it did pretty much touch the lower control arm. So that one came right out, too.
The next thing that I wasn't sure about was actually getting the hub free of the spindle. I used a chisel in a couple places and also hammering lightly on the parking brake backing plate seemed to help knock the bearing free of the spindle, since the hub sandwiches the plate onto the spindle. Nothing really fancy just patient tapping in different places to pry it out.
Once that was out, there was still what I think was a dust cover, a seal and part of the wheel speed sensor. More prying and hammering with a chisel and that comes out pretty easily. I just cleaned up the spindle with 600 grit and some air. Here's that progress.
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Now I was ready to install the new bearing. Pretty easy. Just get it set straight and start the bolts. Snug them up in a pattern and the hub sucks itself into the spindle. I did use Loctite blue on the threads but I torqued them to "tight." I put a new coating of anti-seize on the hub just to make a potential future rotor replacement easier. Side note, look how fancy the rear suspension is. Lower control arm, upper control arm, front control link, and a toe link.
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I thought I was home free but then I struggled for way too long getting the parking brake shoe retaining spring/wire back on with the shoe. It was kind of funny to have gotten through everything and then this just wouldn't go. Eventually I got it but it was frustrating.
Oh, when I got the rotor back on, I applied the parking brake so I could torque the axle nut. I did 110 lb-ft but then I checked just now and it called for 118. I think I'll be fine, though I thought some FWD cars get closer to 200 lb-ft on that nut. The upper control arm ball joint nut wanted 15 lb-ft + 210°. I did that as best as I could. It felt seated in the taper which is the point.
With that all done, I did a road test. Fixed! Rides and sounds smooth again. Hopefully this SKF bearing lasts a long time. And hopefully whatever happened to this bearing doesn't happen to the others. I read the front bearings are more of a pain. The rear couldn't have taken more than 3 hours taking my time and that was including wasting probably 15-20 minutes on the parking brake shoe.
This is the first sealed wheel bearing I've had to replace, which doesn't mean a whole lot. Bill was pretty incredulous that I had to do this at 107k. I'll paste a little write-up I did on sealed wheel bearing life expectancy and some other musings.